International IDEA, 2022, and country information. Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections: A Global Overview. Constructed by authors using Asplund, E., & Park, H. Wildfires in California, Oregon and Washington States, September 2020 General election, California, November 20 Gubernatorial election, Virginia, 5 November 1985 Hurricane Juan, 31 October–6 November 1985 Municipal and Mayoral elections in New Orleans, April-May 2006* Somaliland, Parliamentary and local elections, * Local-level government elections, 20 July to 25 July 2019* Local government elections in Karachi division, August 2022*Ī volcanic eruption of Mt Ulawun, 26 June 2019 General and Provincial Assembly Elections, 15 October 2019
Presidential and Legislative Election, 28 November 2010*Ĭyclone Idai, March 2019 and Cyclone Kenneth, April 2019 Natural hazards that have had an impact on electoral processes CountryĮarthquake, 12 January 2010, Hurricane Tomas, 5 November 2010 National and subnational elections have also been delayed in Jamaica (2007), Japan (2011), Pakistan (2022), Papua New Guinea (2019) and the USA (2006). Postponed elections due to natural disasters include the Haiti 2010 legislative election, postponed for 10 months in the aftermath of an earthquake and Hurricane Tomas ( Towriss 2022). The postponement of an election can breach legal requirements regarding the electoral calendar, can leave a country, region, or municipality with representatives whose term limits have expired, or in some cases legislative seats that remain empty creating a power vacuum. Natural disasters can trigger the postponement of elections, impact electoral operations, affect campaigns, and voter turnout and thereby limit voter choice. How do natural disasters affect elections?Įvidence from around the globe indicates that natural hazards such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires, snowstorms, drought, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions are impacting subnational and national elections (See Table 1). This dramatic development is consistent with the predictions of climate scientists ( IPCC 2021) and it is thus highly likely that elections will more frequently be threatened by natural hazards in future years.
In recent decades, the number of natural disasters increased from under 300 per year in the 1980s to over 800 per annum in the 2020s ( Munich Re 2022). Not only has the Covid-19 pandemic identified a range of vulnerabilities in our democratic institutions ( International IDEA 2020), but democracy is also set to be shaped in complex ways by climate change ( Lindvall 2021). Este artículo está disponible en español.Įlection management bodies (EMBs) have always had to cope with the risk of natural hazards, but the threat posed by such phenomena has become more apparent in recent years. To date, the floods have submerged a third of the country, destroying critical infrastructure and killed more than 1,000 people.
The recent postponement of the local polls in Karachi, Pakistan due to the extreme weather ( Khan 2022) is an example of how natural hazards can affect an electoral process.
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